CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-17T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37872/-1
CME Note: Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-21T01:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-20T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37871/1
Model Inputs:
2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=400.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-03-17T19:39Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-20T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-18T23:33Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-20T13:35Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_193900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.52 hour(s)
Difference: 3.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-17T20:11Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy